Climate Change Induced Coastline Change Adjacent to Small Tidal Inlets

The many thousands of small tidal inlets (STIs), and their adjacent coastlines, are almost certain to be affected by climate change in multiple ways, due behaviour being closely linked both oceanic terrestrial drivers such as riverflow, sea level, ocean waves, all which projected over the 21 st century. Development risk informed adaptation strategies for these highly utilized inhabited inlet-interrupted coast zones requires projections alongshore average coastline recession variability position along under future forcing conditions, latter an aspect that has not received much attention date. Here, a combination process-based morphodynamic model ( Delft3D ) reduced complexity SMIC ), concurrently forced with tides, riverflows, level rise, is used investigate phenomena at STI-interrupted coasts. models here applied schematised conditions representing two systems Sri Lanka, three main Types STIs: Negombo lagoon – permanently open, locationally stable inlet (Type 1), Kalutara migrating 2). Results indicate that, high emissions scenario following RCP 8.5, end-century, Type 1 STI may experience large 200 m, up twice present. 2 about 120 75% increase relative Thus, greater STI, compared STI. These findings highlight importance accounting changes when assessing coastal hazards on coasts adequately inform strategies.